Moore's Law in Munich
So there I was yesterday, attending Systems 2002, which, after the spring CEBIT bash in Hanover, is Germany's most prestigious IT trade fair. And how was the mood at this autumnal gathering of the computer industry's elite in Munich? Astonishingly different to that of last year, I can tell you. Back then, people were still upbeat and insisting that good times would be rolling in a year or so. That guarded optimism has been replaced by downright pessimism because the bottom of the decline is still not in sight. Droves of exhibitors have stayed away from Systems 2002 and attendance is way down. The debate among many of those I spoke to was whether the IT industry had become a mature one or a slow-growth one.
To counteract the doom and gloom, the fair's organizers have talked up mobile phone technology. The abbreviation of the moment is MMS, which stands for multimedia messaging services, and the equipment makers and network operators present at the fair are betting heavily on its swift acceptance. MMS, by the way, is an extension of SMS (short message service), with the idea being that users with specially equipped phones will be able to send digital photos, audio and video to other handsets.
However, given the complex deals that need to be ironed out between international providers, the inevitable high costs of the services to users, the large subsidies needed for the handsets and the reality that MMS can't be expected to make any significant market until the end of 2003, this is not exactly the solution to current problems. And anyway, why should we pay attention to the telecoms operators and their predictions after their elementary failure to grasp the meaning of Moore's Law? You many remember that Intel co-founder Gordon Moore established some 35 years ago that computing capacity doubles every 18 months. This is the unrelenting rule driving the rapid pace of technology development. And what did the telecoms operators do during their massive 1990's expansion? They took on enormous long-term debt and spent a great part of the money on computer equipment that was experiencing almost immediate depreciation and obsolescence. So, having helped create the industry's financial crisis they now expect us to pay their way out of it by sending snapshots and songs to each other. Hello?
