Eamonn Fitzgerald's Rainy Day

Perhaps one reason Saddam is hedging about his al Samoud missiles is that he already believes war is inevitable. If that's the case, those missiles will come in handy in the middle of March. Knowing full well that he's going to lose on the battlefield, the Iraqi dictator's final desperate act will be to go down in flames (burning oil wells!) while hoping to take the UN, the EU and NATO with him. And he's doing remarkably well on that front, isn't he?

Along with Iraq, two other countries, Germany and, especially, France stand to lose an awful lot in such a G?rd䭭erung scenario. Lacking serious military power, the French are unable to challenge the US in the global theatre and so must use the European Union to project their influence. But a successful Iraq war would tarnish the image of French leadership within the EU and cede power to the Washington-friendly pivot of Britain, Spain and Italy. Such a military outcome would also swell anti-French feeling in the pro-American Eastern European countries scheduled to make up a 25-nation EU. Not a very pleasant prospect for the Eleysee Palace.

Outside the EU, the main source of French global influence is, of course, the United Nations, but another failed resolution there followed by war would surely signal the end of the UN as a plausible world body, meaning that the international ability of the French to punch above their weight would then be decided by the performance of US and British armed forces in Iraqi. Again, an indication of how little France has to gain and how much it stands to lose with its present course. Knowing this, and having made his point, the cynical Chirac will now be looking for a way to climb down. Maybe Saddam's al Samouds will be it. In the case of Germany, all the above holds, except that the Chancellor does not have the "Ausweg" (way out) that might open up for the French.

Diarist of the day: Derek Jarman, 26 February 1989

"1950 millibars, the lowest pressure recorded in the last 120 years. A long walk around the Ness to the power station; then up to the coastguard cottages, which I've never explored before. They are set in the middle of a moated mound which encloses a large area -- once kitchen gardens. It's difficult to find a good vegetable garden; even in the marshes I came across only one last autumn, as I travelled around with my camera filming the countryside for War Requiem -- the supermarkets have wiped them out. Once all these little cottages grew their own, before the road was constructed during the war. Now no-one does."