Making war more, not less, likely
An Iraq free of Saddam Hussein would be an Iraq free of the need to amass weapons of mass destruction, say many commentators, and it seems to be a reasonable argument. How to free Iraq of Saddam is the sticking point. It may mean war, but it might mean exile. If the latter is a real option, one can immediately see how damaging the Franco-German approach has become.
From what we know about Saddam, it's safe to assume that he'd only leave Iraq if the threat of war were real and immanent. The military build up in the region would have to be so credible as to leave him in no doubt at all about the outcome. But, by announcing their opposition to war, France and Germany are guilty of allowing Saddam to (mistakenly) convince himself that a war will not take place. As a result, the chances of Saddam choosing exile have been reduced. His continued presence in Baghdad, however, has the effect of confirming the US-UK belief that he is not committed to disarming Iraq and this is making war more, not less, likely.
Diarist of the day: Earl Mountbatten of Burma, 13 February 1965[Singapore] "At 21.00 the whole of our party were sent to the fantastic home of Run Me Shaw, the brother of Run Run Shaw of Hong Kong. The story goes that the elder brother used to hang about for messages, saying 'Run, run?', and then when he had been sent on a message the young brother would say 'Run me?' At all events they are both multimillionaire magnates now. The house is set in an elaborate garden with a large swimming pool, fountains etc. With continually changing lighting systems. We were shown into an immense private cinema and then with evident pride he said to Patricia, Solly and me, 'Now I will show you my wonderful pink Toyland.' Solly and I expected to see a display of toys, but in fact is was the most luxurious ladies' loo imaginable with two pink WCs a the far end, indeed a pink toilet."
