The Italian position
Last night's joint EU declaration placed the onus on Baghdad to "disarm and co-operate immediately and fully", and added that the EU is "committed" to working with the United States. Greece, which currently holds the EU's revolving presidency, hailed the final statement as a triumph and the Greek Foreign Minister, George Papandreou, was moved to declare: "The message from this summit is loud and clear — Saddam Hussein must comply and Europe speaks with a united voice. We come away from this summit with flying colours."
Really? Mr Papandreou knows full well that the declaration has achieved no more than a papering-over of the EU's cracks.
At the press conference following the issuing of the declaration, British prime minister Tony Blair said that if Iraq could not be disarmed peacefully "it has to be done by force". France and Germany, however, said they would still not support any military action, while the French president scolded the EU's prospective new members for backing America's tough approach. "It is not really responsible behaviour," Jacques Chirac said. "They missed a good opportunity to keep quiet," he added, referring to the recent signing by seven of the ten would-be EU members (Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) of a letter supporting the US.
And where does Italy stand? I ask because I'll be in Rome shortly and it's always nice to know the lie of the land, so to speak. Well, prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, is doing a neat balancing act between displaying loyalty to the US and staying friends with France and Germany. But how long can this last? Especially when three million anti-war protesters were on the streets of Rome on Saturday, and Pope John Paul has taken a position against war. Although, not very Catholic anymore, the Italians are still believers.
So far, Mr Berlusconi's position is that his government will allow US forces the use of Italian bases and airspace if it comes to war with Iraq. He's not quite as vocal in his support of the US as Britain and Spain are, but neither has he put himself in the German situation of total opposition to war.
The job of keeping a four-party coalition together at a time when polls show that over 60 percent of Italians oppose a war even with UN Security Council approval is not for the faint hearted. And, it should be noted that within Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, there's quite a bit of opposition to his pro-US stance. Still, one gets the feeling that Mr Berlusconi is going to stand with Washington on this one.
Comments
The internal kitchen of Forza Italia is probably not what bothers Berlusconi. FI is nothing but the association of people who got elected because Silvio was on top of the ballot. On top of that, many Forza Italia MPs are partners in crime of Berlusconi. If he goes down, he goes to jail and they accompany him.
Alleanza Nazionale has in recent years been stalking the GOP like some desperate lover to become accepted as a decent party. They won't jeopardize the success they got on this front by shooting Bush in the back. On the other hand, they're in the same fraction in the European Parliament as the French Gaullists. Conclusion : they will do like Berlusconi and perform a balancing act.
What is more worrisome, is the behavior of the rightist christian democrats (who take their orders straight from Cardinal Sodano, the de facto Pope of Rome while John Paul II is barely alive) and the Lega Nord. The Lega really hates Arabs, but they hate Americans even more. What prevents them from jumping ship is that the left has vowed to destroy the Lega and throw its leaders in jail for opinion crimes. But if the day comes that the Italian left conveniently forgets that promise, Bossi might get some funny ideas.
Posted by: Peter | February 18, 2003 1:52 PM