Eamonn Fitzgerald's Rainy Day

NATO update: Unable to agree to plan to assist one of their own members who may be under threat, (Turkey, in this case), NATO ambassadors have decided to refer new proposals aimed at breaking the deadlock to their governments. The latest discussions today in Brussels failed to end a damaging split over Iraq. Read the story here at the BBC.

So what does this mean for Turkey? And for Europe? Nothing good, I fear.

On 1 February, while the world was busy with its affairs, the Treaty of Nice, which paves the way for the enlargement of the European Union, came into force. This was of considerable significance for the 10 countries set to join the EU in May 2004: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. While Bulgaria and Romania are on course for accession in 2007, Turkey was told in December that it must wait until the end of 2004 for a possible beginning of talks on joining the club. In response, the front page of the popular Turkish newspaper — Hurriyet — carried a photo of da Vinci's Last Supper with the caption, "Will the EU, like Christ's last supper, be purely for Christians or will there be a Muslim at the table?"

The current NATO crisis has added to Turkey's feeling of isolation and this is not good news for Europe, especially because Turkey has got something that Brussels, with all its bureaucrats, can't produce — youth. Almost 30 percent of Turkey?s 70 million population are under 15, compared to an average of only 15 percent in the ten new entrants. In other words, Turkey could give EU growth a badly needed consumption boost as did Spain, Portugal and Greece when they entered the union. Back then, the Mediterranean countries brought that all-important "demographic gift" to the table but that?s not going to happen next year because the incoming ten are ageing societies whose birth rates have long been among Europe's lowest. No one can expect an increase in internal consumption to be driven by decrepit economies which are still recovering from the miseries of central planning.

By compounding the cold-shouldering of the EU, NATO is sending the totally wrong message to the Turks and to those Islamic peoples who have no more sympathy for Bin Laden than we do. Continued rejection of Turkey is bound to be seen by this moderate Muslim country of 67 million people as a desired division between the Christian West and the Islamic East. How long now before someone comes up with the idea of building a wall?