Saddam's last Circle
At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Anthony Cordesman put together a very thorough paper on 18 March called Saddam's last Circle: The Core Forces Likely to Protect Saddam in the 'Battle of Baghdad' (available in PDF format). It features a detailed breakdown of the structure of the regular army, plus that of the Republican Guards and the Special Republican Guards. Oddities such as the Fedayeen Saddam (Saddam's Men of Sacrifice) and Eshbal Saddam (Lions of Saddam) are examined as well. Regarding the latter, Cordesman writes: "A Hitler Youth-like paramilitary training structure for ages 10-16. No one knows how real this force is, or what role it might play in combat, but it cannot be totally dismissed. Young men are often loyal and all have had Saddam as the leader during their entire lives."
Cordesman's analyis is all the more useful because it is fleshed out with pertinent comments such as this on the security services that might be involved in helping to ensure the loyalty of the armed forces:
"It is dangerous to assume that US and British forces can count on uprisings, defections, and being treated as liberators. This may well happen in some areas, but Iraq has a 100,000-man security service and a 40,000-man police force which can help maintain loyalty and be used both to fight on their own and compel Iraqi civilians to do so."
Events over the weekend demonstrated the accuracy of that forewarning
Diarist of the day: Norman Lewis, 25 March 1944"Fear is expressed that the blood of San Gennaro may refuse to liquefy this year, and that such a failure might be exploited by secret anti-Allied factions and troublemakers to set off large scale rioting of the kind that has frequently happened in Neapolitan history when the miracle has failed. Everywhere there is a craving for miracle and cures. The war has pushed the Neapolitans back into the Middle Ages. Churches are suddenly full of images that talk, bleed, sweat, nod their head and exude health-giving liquors to be mopped up by handkerchiefs, or even collected in bottle; anxious, ecstatic crowds gather waiting for these marvels to happen."
