Ireland, Britain, EMU, EU
Before the Iraq war began, Tony Blair told the House of Commons that what was happening at the time would shape the pattern of international politics for the next generation. So, given mainland Europe's obvious wish to favour appeasement over action and emulate Japan as a no-growth region, would it be in Ireland's economic interest to leave the eurozone or even the EU? At the moment, any Irish politician who dared to suggest such a course would by lynched. The gravy in Brussels is far too addictive to contemplate withdrawal.
Still, the question is worth airing because as with Germany, Ireland's decision in favour of European Monetary Union was a victory for politics over economics and, as with Germany, Ireland has paid the price ever since. The country now finds itself tied to a German economy that is determined to follow Japan downhill. If there is an upside to being in the eurozone it is that Irish interest rates are exceptionally low, which is great for mortgage holders. This, however is very bad news for savers. So, not much of an upside, then.
Whatever about leaving the eurozone, leaving the EU would be a much more radical decision and one that could only be considered if Britain did likewise. At least with Britain in the EU, there is some chance that the Anglo-Saxon model will win the day, but countries like Germany and France will fight it to the bitter end.
One good byproduct of the Iraq conflict is that is has raised very real questions about the future of organizations such as the EU and UN, and issues once considered taboo can now be discussed. Thanks Jacques, thanks Gerhard!
