Those two phone calls last week were not the stuff of history, but they were significant nonetheless. The first was with Ian Paisley, icon of irredentist Northern Irish Unionism, and the second was with Gerry Adams, icon of militant Northern Irish Republicanism. At the other end of the line was President George W. Bush. Given that the success or failure of the second Bush term will be determined by progress on such major issues as nourishing democracy in Iraq, enabling a Palestinian state, defanging Iran, disarming North Korea, reforming the UN and defeating terror, Northern Ireland's internecine bitterness will be well down the page of problems the White House has to deal with, but this parochial affair is more important than many think.
For 30 years now, the Nationalist-Unionist conflict has contaminated relations between the Republic of Ireland and Britain, and it has, at times, strained relations between Britain and the US. In the 21st century, none of the affected parties can afford this festering sore, especially given the hazards facing the US, Britain and Ireland. So the time has come to end the "armed struggle", once and for all. Had John Kerry won in November, however, Sinn Fein/IRA would have believed that the re-empowered Edward Kennedy wing of Irish-American Catholic nationalism could have given them massive leverage in Washington, thus adding to the paranoia of the Unionists, thereby increasing tribal tension and putting off a negotiated settlement even longer. But Bush won and Paisley and Adams have to deal with the very sobering fact that there's no appetite on the other side of the Atlantic for funding Armalite politics anymore. They must now sit down and get real. The same goes for Abbas, Annan, Assad, Chirac, Kim Jong-il, Schröder, Zapatero and all the others who went to bed on 2 November and dreamt of waking up in a different world. Like Paisley and Adams, they awoke to reality, and it's this reality: neither alone nor together can they build an army, a navy or an airforce that can take on the US. If they are sensible, they will now channel their disappointment into productivity and the pursuit of progress.
Who would have believed four years ago that NATO would be keeping the peace in Kabul and Kundus so that Afghanistan can build a democracy? Or that Iraq would be preparing for its first free elections in January? Shame on those European leaders, academics and journalists, whose countries were liberated from fascism and communism, and who didn't think the people of Afghanistan or Iraq were entitled to similar freedom! Shame too on all those, on both sides of the
Atlantic and in Asia, Africa and the Middle East who effectively said that Saddam's genocidal dictatorship should have been left in place!
The US president gets our award for making those two phone calls, for liberating 50 million people and for picking up the gauntlet thrown down on 11 September 2001. It was not his choice, but the choice of the Islamists, this war, and it will go on long after he has left office, but when the history books are written they will recall that he was a leader. To George W. Bush, then, goes the Rainy Day Person of the Year Award.