Putting on our red hats
So, you're a cardinal and you're in the conclave. What now? Do you vote for a Third World type to reflect the new demographics of the Catholic Church? Or do you go for an Italian to prop up Old Europe? What about a youngster (well, under 65) to connect with the internet age? Or what about an oldster who won't be around too long but who'll make it easier for the next guy to finally escape from John Paul's shadow? A liberal? With the makeup of the College of Cardinals, that's not going to happen, but given the late Pope's fondness for centralizing authority, the backlash, if it comes, might be in the shape of an internal reformer.
"Always follow a fat pope with a skinny pope," says John Allen, the Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, quoting an Italian saying, and there may be more than a grain of truth in it. Anyway, here's a list of the current cardinals, divided into electors and non- electors. You can use it to make your predictions. Seeing that almost every other site is picking its top ten, I've decided not to, but Francis Turner at L'Ombre de l'Olivier is offering an interesting "Guide to the Papal Conclave" and he's using Father Andrew Greely's book, White Smoke, to help him decode the various announcements over the coming days. Quote: "According to Greeley one of the more interesting signs of who are the Curia favoured front runners will be who preaches at the various requiem masses." It's Ratzinger on Friday!
UPDATE: Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker, who took down the "Who will be the next pope?" betting on Saturday as a mark of respect to John Paul, is now out of mourning and back in business. Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) and Francis Arinze (Nigeria) are both 11-4. Rainy Day tip: back Arinze. Don't know if Arinze fits with the "Always follow a fat pope with a skinny pope" maxim, but he looks like being the right man in the right place at the right time.
