Eamonn Fitzgerald's Rainy Day

They are a small and powerful group of journalists permanently covering the Holy See. Known as the "Vaticanisti", this media elite is extremely insider-informed on the thinking of the hierarchy. Of the English-speaking ones, John Allen of The National Catholic Reporter is certainly the most knowledgeable American journalist in the Italian capital; David Willey, the BBC Rome correspondent, is exceptionally well-versed, Gerry O'Connell of The Universe has excellent sources within the Curia (the Vatican administration) and Robert Mickens of The Tablet is reliable. Given the feedback loop that exists today between the media and power centres from Washington to the Vatican City, the musings of the top correspondents can end up shaping the opinions of those upon whom they report.

So who are the papabili ("popeables") in the eyes of the Vaticanisti?

The first thing to be said here is that commentary on papabili is not an exact science. Back in 1978 some Vatican observers said that Cardinal Sergio Pignedoli considered himself such an obvious winner that he had a papal costume tailored before the conclave. He exited the conclave, however, as he entered, a cardinal. The selection instead of Cardinal Karol Josef Wojtyla, Archbishop of Krakow, was a shock. The first non-Italian pope since the Dutch Adrian VI in 1522 caught the Vaticanisti, and everyone else, it has to be admitted, by surprise.

One thing that makes reading the Roman runes more daunting is that Pope John Paul II could not designate a successor and if he had a favourite, he certainly refrained from naming him publicly. Still, Vatican history shows that the odd discreet push has not harmed a papal career. Pope John XXIII appointed Giovanni Battista Montini to the position of Cardinal Archbishop of Milan to give him the kind of diocesan experience that would bolster his credentials with the Curia. Montini ended up succeeding John XXIII in 1963 and reigned 15 years as Pope Paul VI.

Age is an important aspect say the Vaticanisti. Will the next pope be young as Cardinal Wojtyla was at 58 allowing a long period in office, or an older pope for interim rule, as in the case of Cardinal Angelo Roncalli, who was selected at 80 in 1958. He ruled for four years as Pope John XXIII. Nationality cannot be ignored either. Considering the Roman Catholic Church's global role, the next pope could well come from the Third World, but after the long reign of a non-Italian, an aged Italian might be favoured now. Foreigner or Italian is not that important say some commentators; conservative or liberal is more critical and seeing that the eligible voters in the College of Cardinals were mostly appointed by John Paul II, it's unlikely that a reformer is going to get the job.

A final factor: Although it is said that the Holy Spirit should be the main guide of the papal electors, leaks from previous conclaves suggest that hard bargaining and block-voting by the pope-makers in smoke-filled rooms are all part of the process. So, as you can see, being a Vaticanisti is not an easy task. With this in mind, the next post here will look at the top candidates for the vacant position of pope.