Eamonn Fitzgerald's Rainy Day

So what will the Iraq Study Group come up with today? Will a "forward-looking assessment of the situation in Iraq" be a cover for a retreat or a statement of intent to stay the course? Rainy Day hopes that the Baker-Hamilton group will have the courage to say that ridding Iraq of Saddam & Sons was essential because they posed a permanent strategic threat to the region and to Western interests there. We would also like to hear the ISG acknowledge that the reason the West is expending so much blood and treasure is that we are determined to sustain fragile democracies in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon, three strategically important countries that border Syria and Iran, the main threats to stability in the Middle East.

Most of all, we want the ISG to stand firm against the Syria-Iran axis. The two rogue states should not be involved in any discussions about the drawing down of Western forces in the region. Withdrawal, should it ever come to that, can be carried out without them, thank you very much. What Syria is now seeking is a green light in Lebanon and what Iran wants is a green light for its nuclear weapons strategy. Neither should be permitted as both will lead to war.

To be sure, the Maliki government has failed to unite Iraq, but too much has been sacrificed now to simply walk away. A political settlement is still possible with a government composed of Kurds, secular Shiites, religious Shiites and moderate Sunnis. And, loath and all as we are to admit it, Saudi Arabia is the country that could play a key now in getting the Sunnis to see reason. If this leads to Saudi forces fighting Al Quaeda in Anbar Province, so be it. Far fetched as such a scenario might be, it is preferable to negotiations with Syria and Iran.