Right said Fred
Four years ago, we were singing the praises of Robert Kagan for his courage and clarity in spelling our the differences between the US and Europe in "Power and Weakness", and now its is time to commend his younger brother, Fred, for "A Plan for Victory in Iraq". Fred is the man who has made "surge" the most critical word in English today. Watch out for it below:
"... the risks that attend offensive operations must be set against the risks of passivity and reaction. Insurgent strongholds in Ramadi, Samarra, Baghdad, and elsewhere will have to be cleared out. American forces can do it piecemeal, driving the insurgents from stronghold to stronghold, stringing out the violence and prolonging the coalition presence in Iraq. We can wait for Iraqi forces to gain the requisite skills, allowing the insurgency to entrench itself and grow stronger and, again, prolonging the chaos and need for a U.S. commitment. Or we can simply pull out, turning the situation over to ISF troops we know to be unable to deal with the problems they would face, and thereby run the risk of the collapse of the nascent Iraqi state, with all the horrors therein entailed for the people of Iraq and the honor of the United States.As we consider the alternatives, with the possibility of conflict with Iran ever on the horizon, it would be well to ensure that we are not overlooking the option that would best serve our strategic needs. It may be that the fastest way to turn Iraq over to the Iraqis and draw down American forces is not a steady decline of troop numbers. Instead, the fastest possible 'exit strategy' may require one last surge effort to bring the insurgency down to a level that the indigenous forces can handle on their own. Above all, possible strategies must be considered and discarded only on the basis of a realistic assessment. No approach that offers hope of success should be ruled out without careful thought."
Just when we were being told that the neo-cons had been routed, they've surged back. Expect much wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of clothing in the usual quarters. And it's nice to see Condi back in the news as well. The possibility of conflict with Iran is, as Fred Kagan puts it, " ever on the horizon" and the time has come for the mullahs to appreciate that things are going to get a lot tougher soon.
