Russia, China and the end of dreams
It was the evening of 11 June. Wednesday. How can I be sure? Well, Turkey were playing Switzerland in Euro2008 and the rain in Basel was truly spectacular. The game, despite its deficiencies, was certainly more attractive than listening to a book being read, but because the reader was Robert Kagan, the TV was switched off and Rainy Day plodded off to hear his thoughts on
"The Return of History and the End of Dreams". Let me tell you, it was a brilliant evening. In the light of what's happening in the Caucasus, it was time most profitably invested. Let us open the book now at page 63 and quote a chillingly prescient passage:
"In the nineteenth century, the absolutist rulers of Russia and Austria shored up fellow autocracies in post-revolutionary France and used force to suppress liberal rebellions in Germany, Poland, Italy and Spain. Palmerston's Britain used British power to aid liberals on the continent; the United States cheered on liberal revolutions in Hungary and Germany and expressed outrage when Russian troops suppressed liberal forces in Poland. Today Ukraine has already been a battleground between forces supported by the West and forces supported by Russia and could well be a battleground again in the future. Georgia could be another. It is worth contemplating what the world would look like, what Europe would look like, if democratic movements in Ukraine and Georgia failed or were forcefully suppressed and the two nations became autocracies with close ties to Moscow. It is worth considering what the effect would be in East Asia if China used force to quash a democratic system in Taiwan and install a friendlier autocracy in its place."
My friends, the portents are grim. On one hand, we have the travesty of the Chinese autocrats hosting the Olympics and on the other, the grinding down of Georgia by the Russian autocrats. Kagan is right. The great 21st-century clash between democracy and autocracy is upon us and it's 2-0 to the tyrants. To see how it all might end, read Robert Kagan's book.
