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Events are unpredictable until, quite suddenly, they occur

Thursday, 13 September, 2012

Tuesday, 9/11/12, was the day the roof fell in says Walter Russel Mead in a great post about the unpredictable nature of events. Snippet:

“As the dust settles, there will be more to say — about the politics of Egypt, the chaos in Libya, the President’s leadership, the strike in Chicago, the nature of blasphemy, the pitfalls of public diplomacy in the age of social media, the Israeli-Iranian confrontation and the state of the campaign. And there will be time to remind readers again about the courage and patriotism of so many American diplomats around the world like Christopher Stevens, the ambassador we are mourning today. But yesterday’s events should remind us that all the models and all the ‘laws’ of politics that political scientists labor to uncover are really just rules of thumb and probability calculations. Presidential elections are driven by events as well as by ‘forces’, and many of the most important events are inherently unpredictable until, quite suddenly, they occur.”

And all of this comes before the much-heralded and speculated upon “October Surprise”.


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