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Matt Oczkowski is the Trump data king

Saturday, 12 November, 2016

From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight to The New York Times’ The Upshot to the Clinton campaign’s own numbers crunchers, it seemed a formality that Hillary would win the White House. Why, even last Friday, her campaign manager Robby Mook was rejoicing in the so-called “Clinton coalition” of early voters he believed were leading her campaign to victory. Matt Oczkowski saw a different picture.

Note the name: Matt Oczkowski. He’s the Director of Product for president-elect Donald Trump’s data team, Cambridge Analytica, and he’s the man wot won it, in many ways. While the triumphant pollsters and the sycophantic pundit were unable and unwilling to comprehend anything but a Clinton win, Oczkowski kept modelling and his data suggested a different outcome. During the final 10 days of the campaign, he detected subtle changes in his polling. Then, when early voting stats started coming in, his team saw a decrease in black turnout, an increase in Hispanic turnout and an increase in turnout among those over 55. Oczkowski reworked his models and saw Trump’s path to power take shape. In the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin, the rural vote told the story. “The amount of disenfranchised voters who came out to vote in rural America has been significant,” Oczkowski told CBS. The rest is history.


Comments (2)

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  1. hans ze beeman says:

    Even earlier, Michael Moore predicted the road to Trumpistan, in all details.

    Most pollsters should try looking for a new job, concerning the performance of their prediction models.