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Trump Isn’t as Unpopular as You Think

Thursday, 19 October, 2017

I didn’t say that. Daniel Bier did. Who is he? Well, Daniel Bier is the editor of The Skeptical Libertarian and he has form in this because he predicted Trump’s election and correctly ridiculed the betting markets that undervalued his chances. Anyway, Daniel Bier says that “not Flynn, not Comey, not Russia, not his nominations or firings, not even Charlottesville, North Korea, golfing, Puerto Rico, healthcare, kneel-gate, and everything else that whipped up tsunamis of negative press — has made a dent” in President Trump’s popularity.

Why is this? Writing in Medium, Bier cuts through the chatter and the clutter:

“What I see is just a reversion to the mean, falling back to his equilibrium level of support. His slide in popularity since the inauguration, when all presidents get a bump, is no faster than other presidents (although he started out less popular to begin with). And since mid-May, Trump’s approval and favorability have barely changed… Despite the chaos, incompetence, and infighting of his first 9 months, he has basically maintained the level of support that carried him through the election, and he doesn’t even have the advantage of an opponent to vilify, demonize, and contrast himself with.”

Bottom line: Although President Trump is unpopular, especially considering the thriving US economy, “But he’s not nearly as unpopular as he ought to be, and he might be as unpopular now as he’s going to be (at least in the short-run). Democrats should ponder that as they think about the midterms, a 2020 candidate, and how to erode Trump’s coalition.”

Remarkably, what the US pollsters call “personal favorability” remains consistent in the case of President Trump and, as Daniel Bier, notes, “his favorables are a few points higher now than on election day, when they were -21 points underwater.” Remarkable.

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