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European Elites And African Babies

Monday, 22 October, 2018

Why are European elites worrying about African babies? Ross Douthat claims that the angst is being driven by what he terms “Macron’s Law,” which postulates that with wealth and education birthrates fall — and fall, and fall. In Fear of a Black Continent, he examines Western-supported population control efforts in the developing world:

“So why are they creeping back into the discussion? For three reasons: Because African birthrates haven’t slowed as fast as Western experts once expected, because European demographics are following Macron’s Law toward the grave, and because European leaders are no longer nearly so optimistic about assimilating immigrants as even a few short years ago… This trend would have revived a certain kind of population-bomb anxiety no matter what, but the anxiety in Europe is a little more specific than that – because over the same period, Europe’s population is likely to drop by about one hundred million. (Western Europe’s leaders are a vanguard here: Neither Macron nor Angela Merkel nor Theresa May have any biological children.) In the late 1990s Europe and Africa had about the same population; a hundred years later there could be seven Africans for every European. And the experience of recent refugee crises has demonstrated to European leaders both how easily populations can move northward, and how much harder assimilation may be than they once hoped.”

Bottom line: “But focusing on European fertility has at least one moral advantage over Macro’s finger-wagging at African babymaking: It’s the part of the future that Europeans actually deserve to control.”


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