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Tag: Syriza

Greece as Zimbabwe or Argentina

Friday, 20 February, 2015 1 Comment

What will happen if Greece exits the eurozone? For starters, the banking sector will collapse as everyone tries to move their euros to German banks. Although word on the street is that most have done so already. Athens might consider reintroducing the drachma, but no one would want it, so people would just keep using the euro. This option is not without precedent. Back in 2009, Zimbabwe gave up the pretense of monetary sovereignty and the United States dollar is now the official currency for all government transactions. Just as Robert Mugabe has no influence over the Fed, Greece would no longer have a seat at the ECB but life goes on and there are reports that nightlife in Harare is picking up again.

Instead of going the way of Zimbabwe, Greece might become another Argentina and things won’t be as bad as the pessimists say. Given that what the Argentines call “viveza criolla” is very much at home in Greece, a tango-sirtaki morph may be on the cards. That being the case, here are some useful viveza criolla phrases:

Total, si no robo yo, robará otro.” (In the end, if I do not steal, another will steal.)
Hecha la ley, hecha la trampa.” (Made the law, made a loophole.)
El vivo vive del zonzo y el zonzo de su trabajo.” (The smart guy lives off the fool, and the fool lives off his job.)

Back on the 11th of this month, STRATFOR looked at the two countries in Greece and Argentina, Similar But Not the Same. Conclusion:

Even though Syriza used Argentina’s case as an example during the electoral campaign, and many Greeks are aware of the country’s history, Athens has considerably less room for action than Buenos Aires did. Many of Buenos Aires’ moves since 2001 have been ill conceived and poorly executed, but unlike Greece, Argentina was a fully sovereign country when it made them. Greeks elected Syriza to fix the country’s debt problem without leaving the eurozone and the European Union. Greece’s main problem is that it will be extremely hard for Athens to achieve both goals simultaneously.


Written in Alexandria by an Achaean

Sunday, 25 January, 2015 0 Comments

Greeks go to the polls today at a time of rising tension between Athens and its main creditors. A win for the left-wing opposition party Syriza over the ruling conservatives of New Democracy is predicted. Would a Syriza-led government start a game of poker with Germany that could lead to chaos and a Greek exit from the euro? While we wait for the results, let’s turn to the poetry of Constantine P. Cavafy. He knew his Greek history.

Those who fought for the Achaean League

Valiant are you who fought and fell gloriously;
fearless of those who were everywhere victorious.
Blameless, even if Diaeos and Critolaos were at fault.
When the Greeks want to boast,
“Our nation turns out such men” they will say
of you. And thus marvellous will be your praise.

Written in Alexandria by an Achaean;
in the seventh year of Ptolemy Lathyrus.

Constantine P. Cavafy (1863 — 1933)

Note: The Achaean League (280 — 146 BC) was a confederation of Greek city states on the northern and central Peloponnese. It was dissolved when the corrupt generals Diaeos and Critolaos were defeated in 146 BC by the Romans. Cavafy attributes this imaginary epigram to an Achaean living in Alexandria during the reign of Ptolemy VIII Lathyrus, a turbulent age, somewhat like our own. Actually, Cavafy wrote the poem in 1922, after Greece had been defeated in the Greco-Turkish War. History has no end.

The Achaean league


We need to talk about Greece

Tuesday, 20 January, 2015 0 Comments

The latest poll before Sunday’s election in Greece show the anti-bailout party Syriza getting 33.5 percent of the vote. Should this translate into a majority for the left-wing agitator Alexis Tsipras, the cat will be truly among the euro doves and hawks next week. Note: Syriza has promised to enact a law preventing banks from seizing the homes of people who have fallen behind on mortgages on primary residences valued at less than €300,000.

Greek euro On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported: “Adding to the air of trepidation ahead of the vote, Eurobank and another lender, Alpha Bank SA, have requested access to an emergency cash facility run by the central bank. Both said the moves were only a precaution and that neither faced an immediate funding crunch.” The report’s next sentence is a classic: “People familiar with the matter said the banks are seeking a few billion euros between them.” Just like that: “a few billion euros between them.” Not hundreds, not thousands, not millions; just a few billion.

The Journal article moved Bloomberg View columnist Megan McArdle to write a piece headlined “It Might Be Time to Panic About Greece.” Money quote: “I rush to note that we are hardly in the end days yet; bank officials told the Wall Street Journal that this was only a precautionary move, and they were not facing an immediate cash crunch. One is always pleased to hear that bankers are being cautious. But the Journal also reports that $3 billion has fled Greek banks over the last two months, and there are rumors that other European banks are reining in their lending to their Hellenic counterparts. Which means that, unfortunately, their caution seems more than warranted.”

Wait until Monday. Meanwhile…